While there is much noise and lot of mathematical modelling on spread and damage by Covid19, there is hardly any crystal gazing when it comes to general economy.

The way things are, I think both side will turn up wrong big time.

In India, damage by Covid19 will be contained and won’t spread much as one can see that Indian numbers are trending 100x lower than USA despite having almost same initial points.

However damage to economy will be 10x more deeper and shall be there for at least 18 months. I expect NIFTY to touch 5k when next wave of data start coming in terms of corporate losses and climbing fiscal deficit. Remember almost 90% of government revenue disappeared during lockdown

4th April 2020